Market history
Energy market history
This page keeps the benchmark history from the weekly notes in one place and adds a few simple statistics to help read the trend. It is meant for comparing weeks and spotting patterns, not as a trading tool or a price forecast.
Coverage begins25 Jul 202612 recorded weekly observations
01
Benchmark history
Weekly benchmark history and descriptive statistics
Every point comes from a published weekly note. The three-month and one-year views will become more useful as the archive grows; weeks that are not in the web archive are simply not shown.
Brent crude104.72 $/bbl
Latest published weekly change+2.4%
Figure 1. Weekly closing observations for Brent crude in the World of Energy archive. Unit: $/bbl. Points represent recorded observations only.
Figure export for research use
02
System-dynamics map
Causal structure used to organize interpretation
This is not an estimated model. It is a conceptual representation of hypothesized relations among risk, physical flows, expectations, price, demand, production, inventories, and policy response. Select a variable to inspect the stated mechanism.
+ same-direction effect · − opposite-direction effect · delayed production response · * route-restoration policy
03
Scenario evaluation
Prospective scenarios and subsequent evaluation
Scenarios are competing possibilities rather than point forecasts. Subsequent evaluation asks whether the dominant path and decisive mechanism were identified correctly.
Original scenarioEvidence and outcomeAssessment
Base: gradual release with residual product tightnessPartly supported: IEA prioritizes diesel and accelerated March commitments. Destination cargoes and a delivery schedule are not verified; the 2 October 20-day window remains open.Partial
Upside: delayed releases or renewed disruptionPrecautionary Gulf shut-ins are verified, but they do not establish the original fresh-infrastructure-damage trigger. No missed delivery commitment is verified. Rising prices alone do not score this scenario.Unresolved
Downside: delivered product relief and sustained flowsNot established: authorization and reprioritized reserve pledges do not verify receipt in constrained markets, delivery improvement, or sustained flow normalization.Not established
Previous Issue 09 assessment
Original scenarioEvidence and outcomeAssessment
Base: partial restoration with uneven gas-premium easingIEA supports recovering crude exports with unresolved product constraints. Rolls prevent a clean score for the gas-price leg.Partial
Upside: failed talks or renewed infrastructure damageThis evidence set does not establish the original throughput and renewed-damage triggers. Price volatility alone is insufficient.Unresolved
Downside: implemented agreement and sustained normalizationThe G7 reserve response is not a Hormuz agreement. Full capacity, lower freight costs, and sustained normal deliveries were not verified.Not established
Previous Issue 08 assessment
Published scenarioObserved outcomeAssessment
Base: partial oil workarounds with persistent LNG scarcityOil routes improve while LNG risk stays elevatedPipeline restart and higher loadings were reported, but TTF and JKM fell; the oil leg was right and the LNG-price leg was notPartial
Upside: failed repairs or a new route lossNew damage or failed restorationNo new route loss was verified and the pipeline restarted at a reduced rateNot activated
Downside: verified restoration and flow normalizationRestart plus several days of higher flowsRestart and higher loadings were reported, but full capacity and normal Hormuz transit were not verifiedPartly activated
How scenarios are assessed
Fulfilled: the stated conditions were observed within the window. Partial: only some conditions were observed. Not activated: required conditions were not observed; this does not establish impossibility. Unresolved: evidence is insufficient. These are qualitative assessments, not probabilities or statistical scores.
Prospective record · Issue 11 for assessment 17 OctoberBase: outages unwind with incomplete product relief · Upside: persistent outages or verified route loss · Downside: restarts and delivered dieselConditions and falsifiers
Download the data
The weekly observations behind the charts
Each CSV contains the date, benchmark, unit, closing value, previous week’s close, weekly change, and a source note. They are here so readers can check the numbers or reuse them in their own analysis.